http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-18768857 Aargh. Why can't people read data and think about the implications. > The biggest fall for the 2012 intake is among the over-18 age group - for example, applications from 19 year olds and those aged between 25 and 29 are down by 12%. Yes, because everything who thought "I might apply for 2012 admission" applied for 2011 admission to save money, and therefore the volume was pulled forward. People who might have taken a year out to retake for a "better" university went now rather than later. Etc. You need to subtract out of the figures for this year the unexpected rise in last year's figures. In other news, fewer people buy things in the week following the Christmas sales than during the sales, and people sometimes buy whatever they can get in the sales rather than waiting for new stock later. > Among the 18 year old school leavers, the fall has been less marked, approaching 3%. Look at the population figures. The TFR is downhill all the way from until current six year olds. The TFR is falling most dramatically amongst affluent, indigenous women (ie, the parents of the "wealthiest 20% of students") and not amongst poorer, immigrant and less advantaged groups where if anything it's rising. So if the wealthiest group were applying at exactly the same rate, there would be fewer of them. > The biggest reduction in England was among the wealthiest 20% of students - although whether this means they are not going to university, or studying outside the UK, is not certain. If you study abroad, you need to get funding up-front. Even if you go abroad to somewhere which doesn't charge fees or charges much lower fees, you need to fund the accommodation and travel. By definition, you can't live at home, which is more prevalent (for financial and other reasons) amongst less advantages applicants. Rates of applying overseas are increasing. It's fairly obvious what the outcome will be. If you were going to fund your kids to the tune to fifty grand (fees plus accommodation) and you have the fifty grand available (or you have 17 grand per year available, at least) then you may as well shop around for value. So although only small numbers apply abroad, there'll be more of them than amongst working class applicants. And therefore a drop in the number of affluent applicants anyway (vide supra). ian